The Decade of Linux on the Desktop. You're in it.

[liam_on_linux]

Apple macOS is a UNIX™. It's the best-selling commercial Unix of all time. I wonder if how many old-school Unix folks consider all Mac users in the 21st century to be their brothers-in-arms? Not many, I'd guess.

When it happened, many Unix folks don't consider it a _real_ Unix. Even thought just a few years later, and AIUI after spending a _lot_ on the exercise, Apple got the UNIX™ branding.

 

Now, by contrast:

 

I've spent proper time trying to get some rough estimates on Linux distro usage. Ubuntu is cagey but claims ITRO low double-digit millions of machines fetching updates. Let's say circa 20M users.

 

Apparently, over 95% on LTS and the vast majority on the default GNOME edition. (Poor sods.)

 

The others are cagier still, but Statistica and others have vaguely replicable numbers.

 

My estimates are:

 

~2x as many Ubuntu as Debian users

 

Between them they are about 2/3 of Linux users

 

All Red Hat/CentOS/Fedora derivatives are about 10% of the market.

 

Comparing them to Steam client numbers, Arch is much of the rest: the gap between ~75% Debian family and ~10% RH family.

 

In China, the government has been pushing Linux *hard* for 8-9 years. Uniontech (Deepin) is one of the biggest and last November boasted 3M paid users. 

 

Is that all? 

 

Kylin is also big but let's guess it's #2.  

 

So, if, optimistically, 10% pay, then that's only 20-30M, comparable to Ubuntu in ROTW.

 

Maybe Kylin (also a Debian BTW, they both are) brings it to 50M. 

 

ChromeOS is a Linux. It's Gentoo underneath. Google sells hundreds of millions. Estimated user base is 200-300M and probably a lot more.

 

Chromebooks outsold Macs (by $ not units, so 10x over) in the US by 2017 and worldwide by 2020.

 

Which means there are, ballpark, order of magnitude scale, 10x as many ChromeOS users as all other Linuxes put together.

 

The year of Linux came 5-6 years ago.

 

But it's the _wrong kind_ of Linux so the Penguinisti didn't even notice. 

Comments

[lovingboth]

Given the number of bots, I wouldn't trust any stats from web browsing.

Be interesting to know the splits of, for example, downloads of Zoom.

[liam_on_linux]

A fair point... and something that is getting worse and worse...

[lovingboth]

The other thought is to wonder how many of those Ubuntu repository hits are from servers - I started using them on servers rather than Debian back in 2020, I think, because they do do some things noticeably better than pure Debian unsurprisingly given this is where the income comes from - and so don't really count as 'desktop Linux'.

Of the rest, a bunch are going to be downstream distros like Linux Mint which sort of count for counting them as 'Ubuntu' and sort of don't.

[dboddie]

And how many hits are from virtual machines used for building or continuous integration?

[dboddie]

I think the milestone of Linux on the desktop is pretty much irrelevant these days for most people in the home. If you have a desk job, it might have some relevance, but I imagine that most people don't care too much about what they have to use as long as someone else maintains it.

It becomes more relevant if you have to work somewhere with a bring your own device policy, especially if you don't get the choice of OS yet you still have to keep it running.

I would guess that Linux passed the milestone of being the dominant consumer OS when Android got popular. Not that it did much good for user freedom.